FWIW: The Fed's Key Indicator Forecasts for 2011 - 2013

Thursday, June 23, 2011

The Federal Reserve has had a dismal record with its projections of key indicators in the past decade. As the Fed has expressed a clear bias towards optimism, only to revise everything to the downside, I would take the latest forecast with no less than at least 2 grains of salt.
This time is no different. The Federal Reserve Board and the presidents of the local Fed banks has reduced its forecasts mostly to the downside
Click for fullscreen mode in order to read the Fed's very optimistic forecast that now projects only 2.7% to 2.9% GDP growth in 2011 after an April set of data that had seen GDP growth markedly higher at 3.1% to 3.3%. Inflation is expected to remain below 2% but we all know that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has rather become a Cheap Political Instrument that is manipulated by hedonic changes according to the whim of TPTB in the past 2 decades.
Make sure to check out the graphical display of the Fed's forecasts on page 2 of the document displayed below.
Fed key indicator forecasts 2011-2013
Click to enlarge
The Fed itself, mandated to keep inflation low and employment high, meanwhile takes itself out of the game. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said in the second press conference ever after a FOMC meeting that he expects to stand on the sideline for at least another 2 to 3 meetings, keeping the Fed Funds rate unchanged at between 0% and 0.25%.

If you have time, listen to the biggest money printer of all times own words in the video recording of the Fed's presser below. But actually this time would be better spent by doing some own research as Bernanke has been wrong on all major economic pivot points, e.g. the housing bubble which he declines to accept until this very moment.
As Bernanke has been wrong so many times we can only be certain of one thing: Lacking any other ideas the Fed will continue to print money by the truckload to keep markets aloft with its daily POMOs in the range of 0.69€ billion to 3.47€ billion.

VIDEO: Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke stars at the second ever press conference after a FOMC meeting. US Stocks closed 0.6% lower as the Bernanke Fed is inclined to remain in limitless money printing mode. 
One of the funnier parts is when Bernanke says the Fed was successful in fighting deflation. Only problem is that deflation was never a problem under his tenure. Quite the opposite. Consumers paychecks have been hit hard by price increases that are significantly higher than official inflation and this is their main worry. Consumers don't care about markets as only 1 in 5 persons has enough money left to dabble in markets.
You can find Bernanke's first press conference here. Watch it to see that his statements are highly repetitive and lack the clear guidance markets have been waiting for.
David Merkel's alephblog has an entry comparing the latest 2 FOMC statements to prove the point that Bernanke is more of parrot than a neutral researcher.


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