Wall Street's Disaster in 2 Graphs - Are You Sure this Sucker's Rally Will Last?

Friday, May 22, 2009

People have been asking me why I am soooo bearish on the stock market outlook.
(Short excourse on human rights violations by US Immigration - a first-hand account from an Austrian friend) I am a bit short on time today due to tending a friend with a heavy trauma after she was detained in San Juan/Puerto Rico for 3 days on the way to relatives in Orlando for not having an onward ticket (buying tickets in the US is a lot cheaper.) So the mother of 3 got the terrorist treatment from Immigration (cavity searches etc.) who refused to believe she is a naturalized Austrian citizen since 2 decades. They accused her of wanting to stay in the USA.
Sorry, who wants to stay in a police state that still needs 3 days to prove the genuineness of her Austrian passport, despite spending billions (or trillions?) for FEMA and DHS and all their expensive aggression toys?
When I asked her whether she was treated well, she had only one word, "a**holes," as they claimed her whole story (17 years of commuting between the DomRep and Austria) was all made up. She was then detained again when the US goons sent her back to the DomRep (3 days in a standing-room only overcrowded cell,) only to receive "special treatment" as a suspected body packer in Frankfurt/Germany again. (End of excourse.
Here comes  #2 of my "2 pictures tell it all" posts.
Hat tip goes to David Shvartsman, editor of Finance Trends Matter for the heads up.

GRAPH: With S&P 500 earnings having declined by 90% the price-earnings (PE) ration has shot up to 120 this year. The Japanese Nikkei index collapsed after 1987 at a PE ratio of 70 from 38,000 to 7,000 and has not recovered since. Chart courtesy of chartoftheday.com
If this graph has not scared the you know what out of you, here comes the second shot of reality.

GRAPH: S&P 500 earnings have declined over 90% over the past 20 months (with over 90% of S&P 500 companies having reported for Q1 2009), making this by far the largest decline on record (the data goes back to 1936). In fact, real earnings have dropped to a record low and if current estimates hold, Q3 2009 will see the first 12-month period during which S&P 500 earnings are negative. Chart and description courtesy of chartoftheday.com
CNBC sported a useful graph earlier this day, showing that the debt-to-GDP ration now stands at 375%, compared with 275% in 1929. If you think this is a once-in-a-lifetime chance to short the US market I have one more warning: When this bubble corrects you run a high chance of a default of futures markets too as everybody and his sister will be bankrupt by then.
Readers of The Prudent Investor blog had ample time to reduce their US investments as I had posted a graph on the debt bubble here on July 6,2005.
Keep in mind that these figures do not include the debts of the US' 50 states. Once governor Arnold Schwarzenegger ("it is only a plant") starts thinking about taxing cannabis in California you know it must be really bad. Wasn't the war on drugs all about the dangers of the first plant that was cultivated by humans more than 6,000 years ago, leading to the highest prison population - a good part of them jailed for possession of a few ounces - in the world, far ahead of non-democratic China?


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