In 2008 there were
- 15 nations with an AAA-rating
- 15 corporations with an AAA-rating
- 64,000 CDOs (collateraliezed debt obligations) with an AAA-rating.
I guess you don't need a computer to find out that there was indeed a 64,000 strong imbalance in a market where the masterminds at the ratings agencies got something fundamentally wrong.
Not that this would damage their track record. Ratings agencies got caught on the wrong foot in the Russian crisis in the mid-90s, the Asian crisis shortly before and only started to cut banks ratings in this millennium when even the shoeshine boys had pulled out of the market before. They did not do any better in the Latin Amercian crisis of the 1980s and the internet bubble of the 1990s.
We can confidently expect that the ratings agencies will continue the well-trodden path of misestimating credit risk.
After all the USA as the biggest debtor in the world is still AAA-rated although president Barack Obama and his Treasury secretary have to come up with $5 billion every day, seven days a week in order to finance the budget deficit (which could be halved by stopping the 2 wars in Iraq and Afghanistan that will only further radical Islam and which the USA will lose as they did in all wars after WW2.)
In order to save me some typing please (re)visit the first post of this blog from April 2005: "US AAA Rating - How much longer???"
In this context you may also find the post "The US Debt Balloon - A Simple Explanation for Non-Economists" worthwhile reading.
As the global discussion on new regulations fill many pages of financial media I have a very simple approach:
- Re-repeal the the Glass-Steagall Act and make a division of commercial and investment banking mandatory worldwide. Countries who do not comply could be simply shut out by not doing business with their banks.
- Shut down the ratings agencies for good and let bankers return to their core business: assessing risks on their own. No ratings agencies would mean that bankers would have nobody left for a cheap excuse that it was not their fault.