Summer Has Come - Few New Data Will Keep Markets Quiet

Tuesday, July 05, 2005

After the Federal Reserve's rate hike last week the summer holiday season has arrived. Markets will be able to take a breather with only little new data expected that is not likely to push the Dow Jones out of a trading range between 10,200 and 10,500 points, unless rising oil prices will hammer the market down. But keep in mind that the overall tone of recent indicators has been down. Declining liquidity in the summer months could lead to a quick breakout when some of the data will deviate strongly from the consensus estimates.
In Europe the ECB will hold another rate meeting on Thursday where any other decision than to leave rates unchanged would be more than a huge surprise.
Fed Kansas City president Thomas Hoenig will deliver a speech on the economic outlook on Friday.
Tuesday:
Factory Orders May: consensus 2.9 %, last 0.9 %.
Wednesday:
ISM Business Activity June: consensus 59.0; last 58.5.
Thursday:
Jobless Claims: consensus 320,000.
Friday:
Employment Situation June:
Nonfarm Payrolls: consensus 195,000; last 78,000.
Unemployment rate: consensus 5.1 %; last 5.1%.
Average Hourly Earning: consensus 0.2 %; last 0.2 %.
Average Workweek Level: consensus 33.8 hours, last 33.8.
Consumer Credit May: consensus 3.9 billion dollars, last 1.3.
NOTE: All consensus data from Bloomberg.

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