Only the Consumers Show Optimism

Friday, June 17, 2005

The second set of economic indicators has again darkened the picture after the week began with some encouraging numbers.
While housing starts may indicate a slowdown in the red-hot market, the Philadelphia Fed survey and jobless claims do the same for the production sector.
The new record in the current account deficit hit the dollar right away. The greenback reversed its gains of the last six trading days and was quoted at 1.2275 to the Euro. Anyway this is a race of the weakest and not about the stronger one.
Only the US consumer seems immune to the economy which looks weak to nearly everyone despite the Fed's claims that it is on a firm footing.
Thursday's data:
Housing starts May: actual 2,009 million, consensus 2.04, last 2.038
Jobless claims: actual 333,000, consensus 330,000, last 330,000
Philadelphia Fed Survey June: minus 2.2, consensus 10.0, last 7.3
Friday's data:
Current account deficit Q1: 195.1 billion dollars, previous quarter 188.4 (revised upwards from 187.9)
Consumer sentiment: actual 94.8, consensus 88.0, last 85.3
Have a nice weekend and relax, the problems will still be here next week.

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